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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-03-10T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-03-10T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/7956/-1
CME Note: eruption visible in AIA during flare from 2297. Note another CME follows this one, starting at 2015-03-10T03:36Z, also from the same active region. This entry is for both CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-03-12T18:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2015-03-10T04:46Z 
Radial velocity (km/s):708 
Longitude (deg):E22 
Latitude (deg):N10 
Half-angular width (deg):47 

Notes: Moderate confidence in arrival 
Space weather advisor: Helen Waite

Lead Time: 31.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-03-11T10:14Z

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